Whitby and Oshawa see tight races as Liberals and Conservatives projected to split Durham ridings
Published September 20, 2021 at 7:26 pm
With only hours to go until election polls close, the Liberal and Conservative parties may split Durham ridings right down the middle.
Polling aggregate firm 338Canada projects these parties will each claim three ridings out of the six in Durham Region.
Whitby is the closest race in the Region, per 338. Their polling data estimates support for Liberal incumbent Ryan Turnbull around 38 per cent. Conservative candidate, Maleeha Shahid, is hot on Turnbull’s heels at about 37 per cent. As such the race is too close to project; margins of error in each candidate’s support is about 8 per cent.
It’s possible Whitby won’t have a declared winner for several days because of the high number of mail in ballots this election.
Meanwhile, Oshawa’s race has tightened in recent weeks. While the riding was once seen as a safe seat for 17-year incumbent Colin Carrie, it is now seen as leaning Conservative with 80/20 odds.
This comes after a significant surge in support for NDP candidate Shailene Panylo, and controversy surrounding Liberal Afroza Hossain.
Northumberland-Peterborough South, which contains the eastern half of Clarington, is leaning toward Conservative incumbent Philip Lawrence at an estimated 40 per cent support. Liberal candidate Alison Lester is estimated to have 32 per cent support.
338 data projects Liberals Mark Holland and Jennifer O’Connell as safe in their respective ridings of Ajax and Pickering-Uxbridge.
Conservative leader Erin O’Toole’s riding of Durham is also a safe seat, projects 338.
A candidate must have a 99 percent chance of victory for 338 to consider a riding safe. Ridings have a 5 to 10 per cent margin of error.
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