U.S.-based auto insider says Oshawa GM plant just a ‘pawn’ to be used in negotiations

A U.S. automotive insider, fresh off predictions that the GM Canada plant in Oshawa will lose light-duty truck production at the end of the year, has increased the temperature further by saying the auto giant has treats the plant as little more than a “pawn” to be used in contract negotiations.

“GM’s Oshawa complex has, for a long time, been a pawn in the automaker’s North American production plans,” said Sam Fiorani, the Vice President of Global Vehicle Forecasting for Pennsylvania-based AutoForecast Solutions. “Keeping employment at the facility has helped quell issues between the automaker and the Canadian labor union Unifor.”

Auto Forecast Solutions, a ‘business intelligence’ software company based out of suburban Philadelphia, is reporting that GM Canada’s assembly plant in Oshawa, which makes both light-duty and heavy-duty Chevrolet Silverado trucks (the only plant to do so), is going to lose light-duty production when the next-gen Silverado begins production later this year.

Losing that production could mean going down to one shift – a big blow to a workforce that just lost a shift and more than 500 workers at the beginning of the year.

The company has flat out denied the report, the union representing GM workers in Oshawa has not yet commented and some employees are also questioning the veracity of the information.

Fiorani, however, said GM only offers enough product to keep the plant in operation and to maintain “stability” at the Canadian powertrain plants, without offering any long-term commitments.

“Each time the plant was up for closure, GM has offered Unifor a product for a limited time without the promise of longer-term production. With so many plants in the U.S., as well as Mexico already producing the Chevrolet Silverado, volume lost from the Oshawa plant can be easily recovered from other factories,” he said.

General Motors considers Oshawa “very important” to overall production, Fiorani noted, but he believes Oshawa “comes into play” during contract negotiations with Unifor – talks to set the pattern for the ‘Big Three’ opened Monday – only “if GM needs it.”

“GM lets everyone believe that the light-duty Silverado will not continue to be built in Canada and could, if needed, offer it as a bonus win for the union by adding it back into the plan,” he claimed. “This will allow for a shift of workers to remain on the lines of Oshawa while keeping the engine factory quietly humming in the background, giving the union a perceived win in the new contract.”

Jennifer Wright, GM Canada’s Executive Director of Communications, has rejected Fiorani’s claims. She did acknowledge that production locations for future light-duty Silverados have “not been disclosed,” but cited a recent $343 million investment in the plant as evidence GM is not making any move to reduce production in Oshawa.

“There is no planned production scale-back at Oshawa Assembly,” she said. “Oshawa Assembly continues to play a key role in GM’s full-size truck lineup, and current employment and shift structure are expected to be retained when the plant transitions to next- generation truck production.”

Oshawa GM Redditt, a forum mostly made up of GM workers and their friends and neighbours, were also taking the speculation with a grain of salt, with some mixed reactions.

• “Brutal News.” – duffman
• “We already don’t build a lot of light duties. Two shifts will run it.” – similarlawyer
• “Negotiation threat.” – bootsy

Production was already in decline before this year, with 152,190 trucks rolling off the line in 2024 and just 125,758 in 2025.

Then on Feb. 2 of this year at least 500 workers in Oshawa (and hundreds more in the supply chain) were laid off as the company tried to deal with tariff-related issues from the administration of Donald Trump.

That news that the plant would lose its third shift was announced in advance, with the unionized workers told in May 2025 that it would happen in November. That deadline was subsequently extended to Feb. 2.

The backdrop of this is the 2026 Detroit Three auto negotiations, which began this week with Unifor trying to hammer out a deal with Ford Motor Company that will be the blueprint for GM and Stellantis as well.

“Currently, the Canadian auto sector, and in turn our members and their families, face unprecedented challenges. Unifor firmly believes it is in the best interest of our members across the Detroit Three to work to establish the pattern agreement for 2026 auto bargaining with Ford Motor Company,” said Unifor National President Lana Payne.