LATEST POLLS: 35,697 Ontarians show clear trends ahead of federal election

With the 2025 federal election just weeks away, INsauga — Ontario’s most widely read digital local news website, now active in 19 cities — turned to its engaged southern Ontario audience to gauge voter sentiment through a series of online polls.

In just seven days, from April 7 to 13, 35,697 votes were cast across five polls, offering a detailed snapshot of where voters stand and which issues are top of mind in communities like Mississauga, Brampton, Hamilton, and beyond.

Here’s what Ontarians told us — and what it could mean at the ballot box.

Voter intentions: Liberals gain momentum, Conservatives hold steady
Total votes: 18,216

Takeaway:
The Liberal Party, under new leader Mark Carney, has seen a measurable increase in support within one week, gaining over 3 percentage points. This momentum could reflect growing voter comfort with Carney’s leadership or dissatisfaction with alternatives. The Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, remain steady in the low 40s — a solid base but without recent growth. The NDP is slipping, suggesting that Jagmeet Singh is failing to capture attention in a highly polarized race. Meanwhile, the number of voters saying they won’t vote has been cut in half, a sign of rising engagement as election day approaches.

Debate impact: Most voters say their minds are made up
Total votes: 5,613

No – 80.9%

Yes – 11.7%

Undecided – 7.4%

Takeaway:
A resounding 81% of respondents say the upcoming debates (April 16–17) won’t change their vote, reinforcing the idea that this campaign is already baked in for most voters. This suggests that debate performances may have limited national impact, though they could still influence swing ridings or motivate undecided voters to show up (or stay home). Only a small slice — around 1 in 10 voters — is still persuadable, making targeted messaging in the final days critical for all parties.

Dealing with Trump: Carney Dominates Foreign Trust
Total votes: 5,328

Mark Carney (Liberal) – 56%

Pierre Poilievre (Conservative) – 40.2%

Jagmeet Singh (NDP) – 3.8%

Takeaway:
As the U.S. heads into another pivotal election of its own, Canadians are thinking ahead — and a clear majority of voters trust Carney to manage Canada-U.S. relations, especially if Donald Trump returns to office. Carney’s experience as the former Governor of the Bank of England and Bank of Canada may position him as a more measured, diplomatic leader on the world stage. Poilievre trails by 16 points but still commands significant support. Singh, again, is on the margins.

The economy: Carney leads, but not without competition
Total votes: 5,134

Mark Carney – 57.8%

Pierre Poilievre – 39.4%

Jagmeet Singh – 2.8%

Takeaway:
Despite Poilievre’s constant messaging around inflation, affordability, and cost of living, it’s Carney who wins voters’ trust on economic management — a key factor in any election. This could be attributed to Carney’s background in finance, his calm tone, or a perception of steadiness in turbulent times. Poilievre’s numbers show his economic message is resonating with a large portion of the electorate, but not enough to win the trust of a majority. Singh, once again, struggles to break through on pocketbook issues.

Crime: A razor-thin margin between Carney and Poilievre
Total votes: 5,406

Pierre Poilievre – 48.4%

Mark Carney – 47.6%

Jagmeet Singh – 4%

Takeaway:
This is the tightest poll of the week, and one that could be critical in suburban ridings where concerns about safety and justice dominate. Poilievre has a slight edge, likely due to his hardline stance on law and order, but Carney is nearly tied, suggesting many voters see him as a balanced alternative. With less than 1% separating them, this issue could become a late-game focal point. Singh, again, remains on the sidelines.

What the numbers reveal about Southern Ontario — and Canada’s future

• Liberals have gained ground, especially among voters focused on global stability and economic leadership.
• Conservatives are strong, particularly on domestic issues like crime and justice, but haven’t expanded their base.
• With sub-5% support in all polls, the NDP is struggling, raising questions about Singh’s ability to maintain influence.
• Voter minds are mostly made up, and debates are unlikely to cause major shifts—but every undecided voter now has added weight.
• Southern Ontario remains the battleground, and with thousands of readers participating across Mississauga, Brampton, and the GTA, it’s clear the region will help decide Canada’s next government.

With 35,697 votes cast in just 7 days, inSauga’s polls have captured one of the clearest pictures yet of the mood heading into the 2025 federal election — and it’s a race still very much in play.