Is it going to be a white Christmas in southern Ontario?

With bursts of snowfall throughout the month and just five sleeps to go until Christmas, those hoping for a snow-covered holiday may be watching the forecast closely.

Long-range outlooks earlier this month pointed to at least some potential for wintry conditions, with the Farmers’ Almanac forecasting colder, drier weather across eastern Canada and a chance of snow.

Historically, however, the odds remain mixed. Environment and Climate Change Canada defines a white Christmas as having at least two centimetres of snow on the ground at 7 a.m. local time on Dec. 25.

Based on weather records from 1955 to 2023 across 45 major Canadian centres, Environment Canada data shows a 49 per cent chance of a snow-covered Christmas in the Greater Toronto Area and a 43 per cent chance in Toronto.

More recent records narrow those odds. Between 1997 and 2023, the probability drops to 36 per cent for the GTA and 40 per cent for Toronto.

Environment Canada records also show the GTA experienced 20 green Christmases between 1989 and 2023.

Hamilton has historically seen better chances. Long-term data from 1955 to 2023 shows a 59 per cent likelihood of snow on the ground Christmas morning, while more recent records from 1997 to 2023 place the probability at 56 per cent. Hamilton recorded 14 green Christmases during the same period, Environment Canada notes.

Short-term forecasts, however, suggest milder conditions may dominate on Christmas Day across much of southern Ontario.

Environment Canada is calling for cloudy skies with a 40 per cent chance of showers in Mississauga, Brampton and Halton, with daytime highs near 4 C and overnight lows around 1 C. Hamilton is forecast to reach a high near 6 C, while Durham is expected to top out at 3 C.

Additionally, The Weather Network says forecast confidence remains low for a snow-covered Christmas in communities south of Highway 401, including Windsor, Toronto, Hamilton and east toward Kingston. Weather systems tracking through Lake Superior are expected to bring snow to northern regions, while rain farther south could reduce or melt any snow already on the ground.

While a white Christmas may be unlikely for many this year, the Farmers’ Almanac says snow and colder air later in the month could bring wintry conditions back toward New Year’s Eve and into the new year.

—With files from Ryan Rocca and Karen Longwell.