Here’s the long-range 2024 summer outlook for southern Ontario


Published March 28, 2024 at 11:07 am

ontario summer forecast 2024

While spring has just begun in southern Ontario, some forecasters are looking ahead to summer.

After the warmest winter on record, Ontario residents can expect warmer temperatures for spring and summer, David Phillips, Environment and Climate Change Canada senior climatologist tells

The months of December, January and February at Pearson Airport in Mississauga were the mildest since records were kept in 1938. And with a milder-than-normal spring on tap, the summer could be the same.

“Well, we didn’t have winter and so it’s obviously we can flow right into spring very quickly,” Phillips says.

People are already experiencing the impacts of a warmer start to spring.

“People are complaining of respiratory issues that they normally would complain about in May. They’re complaining about it in March because trees are budding and there’s pollen being released,” Phillips says.

While it’s too soon to make an accurate weather forecast for summer, climatologists can make broader predictions.

“We are not talking about a weather forecast, we’re talking about a seasonal outlook,” Phillips says. “It is a crapshoot at times and the farther you look out, the more inaccurate you’re going to be. And that’s why our monthly seasonal forecasts are not very detailed.”

Summer — June July, August — is still months ahead and there is no way to make an accurate, detailed prediction, he says.

But as the spring is expected to be mild, with higher-than-normal temperatures in March, summer in southern Ontario will likely be the same.

“So we’re calling it for it to be warmer than normal,” Phillips says. “Americans are calling for the same thing.”

This could mean farmers get their crops out earlier but also a worse bug and tick season. Black flies and mosquito numbers could increase as they have a longer breeding season.

However, Phillips says it’s not possible to accurately predict precipitation this far in advance. Even a few days out, it’s difficult to say for certain how much rain or snow could fall.

So, it’s hard to say if Ontario and Quebec will have the dry conditions that led to increased forest fires last summer.

But many areas in Ontario, such as Ottawa, haven’t had the snow build up as in previous years so that could mean drier than normal conditions.

If it is like previous summers, we will likely get thunderstorms and tornadoes in Ontario.

“We live in a stormy area,” Phillips says.

So, people can look forward to some warm weather but keep an eye out for storms.

“So, my sense is, hey, it can be a good time for people to get in a boat and do the things they like, enjoy recreation, but also always keep an eye on the sky.”

Lead photo: Nitin Dhumal

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