Here’s how much home prices could change in the Greater Toronto Area and Canada

Home prices are expected to decline in the Greater Toronto Area in the last months of 2025, but could increase in other parts of Canada.

The aggregate price of a home in Canada recorded virtually no change in the third quarter of 2025, increasing just 0.1 per cent year over year to $816,500, according to the Royal LePage House Price Survey and Market Forecast released Oct. 15.

However, on a quarter-over-quarter basis, the national aggregate home price posted a decline of 1.2 per cent, driven by depreciation in many major markets across the country over the summer, the report found.

“Canada’s housing market is shifting toward balance, as easing prices, rising listings and renewed rate cuts improve affordability across most regions,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. “For the first time in years, buyers – especially in previously supply-strapped markets – have real choice and negotiating power. With confidence returning and further rate reductions expected into early 2026, we anticipate noticeably stronger activity by the spring.”

The aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area decreased 3.5 per cent year over year to $1,114,900 in the third quarter of 2025, the report found. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the GTA also declined 3.5 per cent.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 1.2 per cent year over year to $1,403,800 in the third quarter of 2025, while the median price of a condominium decreased 7.4 per cent to $668,700 during the same period.

“The GTA housing market remains firmly in favour of buyers. Sales activity has been gradually increasing, however, this has not translated into price appreciation due to higher-than-normal levels of available inventory,” said Shawn Zigelstein, broker and leader of Team Zold, Royal LePage Your Community Realty. “Active listings are well up, with the influx of new listings consistently outpacing sales, providing prepared buyers with a significant advantage in both negotiating power and choice.”

Zigelstein also noted that properties are spending significantly more time on the market.

“The average days on market is now edging towards two months – a stark contrast to the pandemic real estate frenzy, when properties were selling in just a few days,” he said. “Sellers who price their homes too high are finding them languishing, as buyers remain cautious, selective and still highly price-sensitive.”

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area will decrease three per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised down to reflect current market conditions.

Across Canada, however, Royal LePage predicts a one per cent price increase in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised down to reflect price depreciation across Ontario and British Columbia, and slowing growth in other major markets.

“We expect the uptick in sales that began this summer to carry through the fall, setting the stage for a brisk 2026 spring market, provided consumer confidence continues to recover,” said Soper. “Prices are likely to tread water in the near term, as improved affordability and lower borrowing costs draw more buyers back to the table. Finally, the return-to-office trend should renew demand in urban cores, even as lower prices in suburban and rural communities continue to attract families – just not at the scale we saw during the pandemic.”

Compared to the peak of pandemic pricing in the spring of 2022, national home prices have come down by approximately five per cent, driven by depreciation in the urban centres of Toronto and Vancouver, where prices are currently sitting more than 12 per cent below the peak. Meanwhile, home prices have continued to appreciate in Quebec, the Prairies and Atlantic Canada.

“Buyer sentiment is being influenced by a complex mix of economic and psychological factors,” said Soper. “Despite materially improved affordability in major cities, many Canadians – particularly younger ones – remain cautious amid high post-pandemic living costs, perceived job uncertainty, and general unease about our economic prospects. It’s understandable that some are waiting before making such a significant purchase.”

For more information see the Royal LePage website here.

Lead photo: Pixabay