COVID-19 cases expected to surge this fall in Hamilton
Published August 31, 2022 at 1:17 pm
As fall approaches, COVID-19 cases are again expected to surge in Hamilton.
In the near-term new hospital admissions, including intensive care admissions, are predicted to level off and decrease but that will change this fall.
Hamilton’s current seventh COVID-19 wave is likely to “greatly increase in the fall,” according to the Scarsin COVID-19 Forecasting Update for Hamilton posted on Aug. 31.
“This happens as more Hamiltonians move indoors and the more infectious sub-variants such as BA.5 continue to circulate,” said Ruth Sanderson, city epidemiologist at an Aug. 10 Hamilton board of health meeting.
About 495 new hospital admissions of Hamiltonians are predicted from Aug. 31 to the end of the year, the latest report notes.
Unfortunately, vaccination uptake has been lower than expected and this has officials predicting more hospital admissions. Previously, they predicted 323 new hospital admissions.
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The majority of hospital admissions, about 50 per cent, are predicted to be 60 to 79 years old, 26 per cent will be 80 years old and older, and about 24 per cent will be people up to 59 years old.
These predictions could change if newer vaccines become available and there is an increase in protective measures such as masking, Sanderson said.
Right now, the seventh wave is expected to peak in fall or early winter. The peak is expected to be similar to last spring’s rise in cases but not as high as last winter.
Currently, hospital admissions and new cases remain stable but over the past two weeks, the number of active outbreaks has increased (24 on Aug. 16, 22 on Aug. 23, and 31 on Aug. 30).
Hamilton Public Health Services says vaccination remains the most important way to protect against COVID-19 and its health effects. And they strongly recommend wearing a well-fitting mask indoors, especially when it’s crowded.
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