‘7th COVID-19 wave has started in Hamilton,’ says Scarsin forecasting that the city is now publishing
Published July 14, 2022 at 1:22 pm
About 500 residents in Hamilton will be hospitalized with COVID-19 during the seventh wave of the pandemic, according to the Scarsin forecasting that the city will be presenting semi-monthly.
On Thursday, as fourth doses became available to all adults across Ontario, the City of Hamilton announced it has added the the Scarsin COVID-19 Forecast to its online dashboard. It will be updated semi-monntly at 12 noon on Wednesdays, complementing the weekly COVID-19 transmission summaries (which show that transmission status is high locally).
Scarsin forecasting is a modelling platform, developed by a Markham, Ont.-based company, that can help predict the evolution of COVID-19 activity in order the support health protections in the public and private sectors. The latest forecasting shows that Hamilton’s “7th COVID-19 wave has started and is predicted to greatly increase into the fall.”
That will lead to hospitalizations “continu(ing) to moderately increase during the summer peaking in late fall or early winter as Hamiltonians move indoors and more infectious sub-variants such as BA.5 continue to circulate.”
About 30 per cent of the Hamiltonians who will end up in the hospital will be middle-aged adults, younger adults and youths (people under age 60). Forty-one per cent are anticipated to be people in their 60s and 70s, and the balance will be octogenarians or older. Scarsin forecasting, though, focuses on the immediate outcome of requiring hospitalization, and not the longer-term health issues that are associated with “long COVID.”
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As noted in the modelling, that forecast does not account for potential changes how COVID-19 is treated. That means the approval of the first vaccine for children between six months and five years old is not included. Other variables that are not factored in are newer vaccines adapted for Omicron sub-variants, which is at least a few months away. Neither are increased rates of vaccination uptake or increased masking, neither of which are mandated by the Ontario government.
Around 55.5 per cent of the eligible population in Hamilton are triple-vaxxed against COVID-19. On Wednesday, the last day when fourth doses were mostly open to people who are at least 60 years old, the city said that 36.5 per cent of that elder population had rolled up their sleeves for a fourth jab.
“To reduce the impacts of this wave as much as possible on community members, their loved ones and our health care system, Hamilton Public Health Services encourages community members to stay up-to-date on their COVID-19 vaccinations, including getting all the doses that are recommended for them, wear a well-fitted mask when in indoor spaces, and stay home if they are feeling unwell,” a City of Hamilton release stated on Thursday.
Health Canada is expected to approve a new bivalent COVID-19 vaccine this fall. It may offer more targeted protection against Omicron variants. All vaccines need regular adaptation in order to correctly target new circulating strains of a virus.
(Graphic via City of Hamilton.)
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