POLLS: 32K vote as Trump bump, tariffs, and leadership push Carney ahead of Poilievre in Ontario

As of March 30, 2025, with Canada’s federal election set for April 28, a comprehensive series of polls from insauga.com paints a revealing portrait of the political landscape—and the voters shaping it.

The polls, which drew 32,641 total votes, were conducted on insauga.com, a digital news platform that garners over 15 million monthly page views across Ontario, making it one of the province’s most influential local and regional media voices.

The scale of engagement offers unique insight into the mindset of voters heading into one of the most pivotal elections in recent years.

Carney and the Liberals hold a strong lead over the Conservatives

In a head-to-head party preference poll with 2,375 votes, respondents were asked:

Between the Liberal and Conservative parties, which would you vote for in the federal election on April 28?

• Liberal Party of Canada: 55.9% (1,327 votes)
• Conservative Party of Canada: 44.1% (1,048 votes)

This nearly 12-point lead gives the Liberals an edge among engaged readers—though regional differences and voter turnout will be critical come election day.

Leadership poll: Carney tops the field

When asked directly who they believe is the strongest federal party leader, voters gave Prime Minister Mark Carney a commanding lead.

Poll question: Who do you believe is the strongest federal party leader in Canada at the moment?
(11,992 total votes)

• Mark Carney (Liberal): 54.3% (6,513 votes)
• Pierre Poilievre (Conservative): 41.2% (4,944 votes)
• Jagmeet Singh (NDP): 2.8% (332 votes)
• Elizabeth May (Green): 1.7% (203 votes)

The results reinforce that leadership trust is a central issue, with Carney seen as the strongest figure nationally—further helping to drive Liberal support heading into the vote.

Carney-Trump call increases support for some

One of the more talked-about moments of the campaign so far has been Carney’s recent phone call with former U.S. President Donald Trump, which was described by both sides as “extremely productive.”

While controversial, the move appears to have resonated positively with some voters.

Poll question: Has Mark Carney’s call with Donald Trump changed your mind about voting for him?
(4,654 votes)

• Yes – I’m more likely to vote for Carney now: 51.8% (2,409 votes)
• No – I still won’t vote for him: 48.2% (2,245 votes)

Despite Trump’s polarizing status in Canada, Carney’s diplomatic engagement may have boosted his image as a global statesman, capable of handling high-level international relationships.

Why voters are supporting their parties

Insauga also polled readers on why they’re voting for their preferred party—and again, leadership trust emerged as the top factor.

Among 2,024 Liberal voters:

• Trust in leadership: 41.9%
• Like the leader (Carney): 19.6%
• Strategic vote: 12.3%
• Longtime supporter: 11.4%
• Believe in economic approach: 10.5%
• Support social policies: 4.3%

Among 1,556 Conservative voters:

• Trust in leadership: 32.3%
• Believe in economic approach: 25.9%
• Longtime supporter: 14.5%
• Like the leader: 10.6%
• Strategic vote: 9.6%
• Support social policies: 7.1%

Key insight: Leadership trust is the most powerful motivator for both sides, but the Liberal base appears more energized by Carney personally than the Conservatives are by Poilievre.

Top election issue: Trade leads over inflation and housing

In another eye-opening result, voters were asked what issue would most influence their decision if the federal election were held today. Out of 10,040 votes, one issue stood out far above the rest:

• Fighting U.S. tariffs & trade disputes: 45.8% (4,595 votes)
• Economy & inflation: 25.9% (2,605 votes)
• Immigration & population growth: 11.1% (1,111 votes)
• Housing affordability: 9.9% (990 votes)
• Other: 5.2% (522 votes)
• Climate change & environment: 2.2% (217 votes)

Despite frequent headlines about inflation, immigration, and housing, the clear priority for voters is Canada’s international trade position—particularly with the United States.

This priority plays directly into Carney’s wheelhouse, given his background as former Governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, and his recent diplomatic outreach with the Trump camp.

The road to April 28

With just weeks to go before Canadians cast their ballots, a few significant themes are emerging from the insauga.com polls:

• Mark Carney is the current frontrunner, earning high leadership and personal appeal.
• Leadership trust is the most decisive factor driving voter support, more than economic plans, social issues, or party loyalty.
• Trade and global relations have unexpectedly become the top voter concern, surpassing even inflation and housing affordability.

Of course, polls are only snapshots in time. Campaign missteps, voter turnout, and late-breaking stories can still shift the race. But as of now, Carney and the Liberals appear to have the momentum—and the message—heading into April 28.